Trump's Path To Tehran: The Making Of A Global Bargaining Chip

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The point is not merely to neutralize Iran but to demonstrate to Beijing, Brussels and beyond that Trump's America is prepared to shatter international norms to reassert dominance.

Leverage through destruction

By pulverizing Iran's defenses and forcing a surrender, Trump can create a shockwave that ripples through multiple geopolitical theaters.

First and foremost is China. Beijing, already embroiled in a tit-for-tat tariff war with Washington, is being forced to reconsider its risk calculus. A United States that can unilaterally take down a major regional power signals a willingness to escalate beyond traditional economic warfare.

Trump clearly wants China's leadership to understand that their negotiation counterpart is not a rational actor bound by global rules-but a strongman driven by prestige , leverage and personal victory.

Second, Washington's allies would be caught in the moral and strategic dilemma of either backing Trump's new militarist campaign or risking their ties to the US economy and defense umbrella.

Members of the European Union-especially France-may voice concern , but ultimately, many of them remain economically and strategically tied to the United States. The same dynamic plays out in Asia, where regional powers depend on US security guarantees while also being wary of American unpredictability.

Third, Trump can use the devastation in Iran to undermine Russia's remaining influence in the region . With Iran weakened, Moscow's capacity to counterbalance US interests in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq will be significantly diminished. In this sense, Iran becomes both a target and a message: defiance will be punished, and accommodation will be rewarded-on American terms.

Calculated risk of regional blowback

Of course, bombing Iran is not without consequences. Trump's team understands the potential for a regional conflagration. Hezbollah in Lebanon , Shia militias in Iraq and the remnants of the Houthis in Yemen may launch retaliatory attacks on American interests and allies.

But Trump, emboldened by a Republican-controlled Congress and the politics of spectacle, is likely to argue that such blowback is manageable-collateral damage in a global campaign to reassert American primacy.

Israel, already engaged in shadow wars with Iran, would likely welcome such US involvement , seeing it as a decisive moment to dismantle the Islamic Republic's regional ambitions.

For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, this could be the culmination of a decades-long security doctrine centered on preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power or a hegemon.

For Trump, Israel's support is not just strategic-it is deeply political. It energizes his evangelical base and signals to Washington's hawkish establishment that he is not just a deal-maker but a wartime president.

Deal-making through devastation

In many ways, this is a return to a form of Nixonian“madman theory”-showing unpredictability to coerce adversaries into submission. But Trump takes it one step further: unpredictability is no longer a tactic but a brand.

From tariffs to trade deals, embassy relocations to drone strikes, Trump has shown that chaos is not a byproduct-it is the plan.

Once Iran is bombed and coerced into surrender-should that scenario come to pass-Trump will likely position the act as proof that America is back, that it no longer tolerates deadbeat allies, hostile regimes or trade cheats.

He will then pivot to Beijing, pressuring China to remove barriers to US exports, agree to more stringent intellectual property protections and halt its support for Iran and Russia.“Look what happened to Tehran,” Trump might warn.“Don't be next.”