India, Pakistan And Slumbering Toward Total World War

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As America withdraws to rebuild itself, perhaps Beijing could win its race in a few simple steps that would address global concerns about Beijing. It could announce political reforms that liberalize the country and democratize the political system. The People's Republic of China (PRC) would have a political system like the rest of the developed world.

It could grant complete freedom to Hong Kong to empower its stock market, which could then rival Wall Street. It could declare a plan to make the RMB fully convertible within a few years and open its markets, thus soon becoming the largest market in the world, dominating all consumption and production.

It could forge new alliances with neighbors, trading territorial claims with India, Japan, Southeast Asian countries and Taiwan in exchange for closer political and military cooperation. That would transform its main weakness, being surrounded by a score of semi-hostile nations, into the gravitational center of 60% of the global population.

These steps, implemented over a few short years, could make China a great superpower. However, they are arduous for internal reasons.

With political liberalization, the Communist Party would lose or need to redefine its power. Market liberalization would require raising workers' salaries, creating different domestic and international dynamics-boosting domestic consumption but reducing exports. Real agreements with neighboring countries could challenge Chinese nationalism.

These are very tricky, and the super-cautious Chinese leadership would most likely shy away from them-giving the US time to reconsider and develop a more effective global approach.

Moreover, Beijing seems to lack an international touch. It poured salt on the wounds rather than mending fences with India after the clash with Pakistan. It reasserted India's border claims with a fresh list of Chinese names in Arunachal Pradesh, Zangnan in Chinese, an Indian state. The message seems to be:“India, you've been beaten-accept your lot and bow down.”

It's unclear how India will receive this message-will it accept the neighbor's influence or respond with greater defiance?

This message could be irritating for India and the entire world. Beijing has sacrificed an opportunity to draw India and part of the world closer by showing an understanding of their troubles.

Possibly, Beijing believes it's essential to display strength rather than weakness to its counterparts. While this may work within a traditional Sinic cultural context, it may backfire with countries with different mindsets.

Still, China's technological and military rise-coupled with its missteps and America's efforts to demolish its own order-creates an unprecedented global volatility that can ignite conflicts at any moment.

Global uncertainty

European countries, led by the UK, France, Germany and Poland, seem eager to patch up what the US is leaving behind.

French President Emmanuel Macron has expressed openness to stationing French nuclear weapons in other European nations in case the US atomic umbrella is withdrawn. EU security could evolve, especially with Turkey, possessing the second-largest NATO army after the US, becoming Europe's strongest defense on the southeastern front.

The efforts are no substitute for American withdrawal. The US's outreach to Saudi Arabia and Qatar (which hosted and armed Hamas terrorists) has created new friction points with Israel. Turkey and Israel remain at odds over Syria, now under Ankara's influence.

Tensions between Turkey and Israel overshadow NATO and the EU, which traditionally support Israel and are hesitant to choose sides. America's recent objectives may boost American markets in the short term, but demolish the old American systems.

The leading European powers do not share a unified voice or coordinated foreign policy that could effectively step into the many agendas. They are unsure how to handle Ukraine, especially since decades of distraction depleted their military forces and industrial capacities.

The scenario misses the central strategic theater – Asia. There is no UK or France that could replace the American atomic umbrella. So, some countries may decide to arm themselves, starting an unprecedented nuclear arms race.

South Korea, Japan and the Philippines are increasingly concerned about China. At the same time, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Thailand are uncertain about navigating the current international environment.